The Austin housing market continues to test the balance between rising inventory and stabilizing demand, with key indicators pointing toward a supply-heavy environment that still carries lingering buyer hesitation.

Market Overview
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As of today, active residential listings in the Austin-area MLS stand at 17,335, a 15.4% increase compared to 15,019 at this time last year. While this figure is slightly below the late-June peak of 18,146, it still represents one of the highest inventory levels in recent years. For perspective, Austin’s housing market rarely carried more than 15,000 listings before 2024, highlighting just how much supply has grown. With 59.2% of these listings showing at least one price reduction, sellers are adjusting expectations to meet market realities.

The expansion in inventory has pushed Months of Inventory to 6.17, up 16.4% year-over-year from 5.30. This movement clearly signals a stronger buyer’s market compared to recent history. Cities such as Jarrell, Smithville, and Burnet now show double-digit months of inventory, while Austin proper has risen from 4.90 last year to 5.32 this August. These figures demonstrate that buyers have more negotiating leverage, especially in suburban and outlying markets where absorption is slower.

Pending Sales and Market Flow

Pending contracts rose modestly from 4,097 in August 2024 to 4,283 this year, a 4.5% gain. While that’s a positive sign, cumulative pending contracts year-to-date total 28,358, which is down 9.9% from last year and still below long-term averages. This slowdown is reflected in the Activity Index, which dropped from 21.4% last year to 19.8% this year, a 7.6% decline. The index captures how efficiently new listings are converting to pending sales, and the current rate points to weaker momentum than Austin’s historical norms.

The monthly new listing-to-pending ratio sits at 0.68, consistent with a year-to-date ratio of 0.69. Historically, Austin has averaged 0.82, meaning today’s market is skewed toward excess listings compared to buyer activity. That imbalance has created a cumulative gap of more than 8,100 additional new listings compared to pending contracts so far in 2025.

Sales Volume and Density

In terms of closings, Austin recorded 2,752 sales in August, contributing to 20,575 cumulative closings year-to-date. That represents a 4.5% decline compared to last year, but still tracks 6.3% above the long-term historical average. On a per capita basis, however, sales density is weaker: just 806 homes sold per 100,000 residents year-to-date, down 6.8% year-over-year and more than 21% below the historical average.

The picture is similar when measuring per Realtor: 1,102 closings per 1,000 agents, effectively flat compared to last year but down more than 25% compared to historical norms. These statistics suggest that while the number of homes sold is relatively stable, Austin’s growing population and growing Realtor base mean individual buyers and agents alike are encountering more competition and fewer transactions per capita.

Pricing Trends
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Home values remain well below their 2022 peaks. The average sold price in August 2025 is $606,011, down 11.1% from the peak of $681,939 in May 2022. The median sold price now sits at $456,000, marking a 17.1% decline from its May 2022 peak of $550,000. On a rolling three-year comparison, today’s median is 8.1% lower than in August 2022, underscoring how far the correction has extended into middle-market homes. The distribution of appreciation shows a split market: properties in the bottom 25th percentile declined 1.5% year-over-year, while those in the top 25th percentile gained 4.8%.

This indicates that higher-end buyers remain active, while affordability constraints are pressuring entry-level and mid-tier demand. Looking forward, if the median price of $456,000 represents the bottom of this cycle, historical appreciation suggests it would take approximately 48 months to return to the May 2022 peak. At Austin’s 25-year compound annual appreciation rate of 5.036%, the projected median by July 2029 would be $550,349—essentially equal to the last peak.

Supply and Demand Balance

One of the clearest indicators of Austin’s market dynamic is the Sold-to-Active Ratio, which currently sits at 16.2%. Historically, Austin has averaged closer to 31.9%, almost double today’s absorption rate. A healthy seller’s market typically requires ratios above 20%, while a sluggish buyer’s market is defined by ratios below 10%. Today’s market falls in between but is far closer to a supply-heavy environment than the competitive seller’s markets of the past decade. The Market Flow Score (MFS), a normalized measure of demand and turnover, reads 4.40 compared to a historical average of 6.60. That reinforces the narrative that Austin’s housing market remains sluggish, with more inventory than demand is prepared to absorb.

Takeaways for Buyers, Sellers, and Agents

For buyers, this is one of the most favorable environments in years. Elevated inventory, longer days on market, and nearly six out of ten sellers cutting prices mean negotiating leverage is strong. For sellers, the message is clear: pricing competitively and presenting homes well are essential to attracting offers in a crowded field. Overpricing risks months of stagnation and eventual larger price reductions. For agents, market knowledge has never been more critical. Educating clients with accurate data on absorption, pricing shifts, and long-term appreciation helps set realistic expectations in this transitional market.

The Austin housing forecast for the remainder of 2025 leans toward stabilization rather than a sharp rebound. With pending contracts down year-to-date and absorption weaker than average, the market is still working through excess supply. The next few quarters will determine whether Austin can absorb this inventory or whether elevated listings will continue to weigh on pricing into 2026.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for August 21, 2025.​