Even with buyer activity lagging and inventory still elevated, today’s data signals an Austin housing market that is slowly working through its correction rather than relapsing into decline.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for November 28 2025.
Austin real estate continues to correct at a controlled pace as we close out November 2025. Active listings sit at 15,166, which is higher than the 13,156 units available at this point in 2024 but still nearly three thousand below this year’s peak of 18,146 reached in late June. The increase in supply compared to last year confirms that inventory remains broad heading into December, yet the fact that levels are well below midyear extremes indicates a measured stabilization. With 57.4 percent of sellers having reduced their price at least once, the market is clearly pushing for clearer alignment between pricing and actual buyer willingness. For anyone tracking austin real estate trends or building an austin real estate forecast, the current environment reflects a continued rebalancing rather than outright retreat.
Compared to November 2024, active inventory is up by 15.3 percent while pending listings remain almost identical with only a point three percent difference. This disparity between new supply and contracted activity reinforces that while more listings are coming to market, demand has not expanded in equal measure. Cumulative new listings year to date total 47,792, a five point three percent gain and more than twenty three percent above historical norms. In contrast, cumulative pending activity is down one point seven percent year over year despite being six point five percent above average. The net difference of 7,042 underscores why inventory levels have widened and how buyer absorption has not kept pace with seller listings. From a process and forward risk standpoint, this gap is pivotal in shaping the austin housing forecast over the next two quarters.
The Activity Index, one of the clearest forward sentiment indicators, currently reads 19.9 percent versus 22.3 percent in November 2024. That ten point eight percent drop points to reduced urgency among buyers even as pricing adjusts. New construction shows a more resilient index at 26.08 percent while resale activity trails at 17.15 percent. Market phase breakdowns confirm more than half of local resale activity sitting in the Contraction or Danger Zone range of 15 to 20 percent, with only one percent falling into expansion territory. For agents and sellers, this emphasizes the critical importance of front loaded pricing discussions and realistic buyer expectation framing. For investors, lower absorption efficiency means more leverage to negotiate but also slower exit velocity, which affects underwriting strategies.
The monthly new listing to pending ratio stands at 0.82, matching long term averages but above this year’s cumulative average of 0.72. Historically, a month level ratio closer to 0.82 aligns with normalization patterns rather than stress response phases. Still, the year to date trend shows more listings entering the market relative to executed contracts than what typically supports price stability. This is further supported by months of inventory, which has widened from 4.62 in November 2024 to 5.43 today, marking a seventeen point six percent increase. That moves the market deeper into buyer advantage territory, where leverage shifts toward concessions and timing flexibility.
Breaking this out further, resale specific inventory levels highlight why momentum has slowed. Only ten percent of inventory falls under the 120 day seller acceleration threshold, while twenty seven percent sits between 210 and 267 days and seventeen percent has been listed for more than 270 days. Excess listing longevity is a key signal within the austin real estate forecast model, indicating that while prices have already adjusted, absorption remains below what is needed to spur reacceleration. The Austin absorption rate now measures 13.47 percent, which is less than half of the historical average of 31.63 percent. Put plainly, just over one in eight homes go under contract each month compared to nearly one in three in a balanced period.
Sales volume trends reflect the same deceleration. Sold properties for the month total 2,257, down from normalized peak ranges above 3,000 during healthier seasonal periods. Cumulative closings year to date stand at 27,969, which is three percent below the same time last year but still eight point one percent above long term norms. This reinforces that while transactional velocity has slowed versus recent history, broader structural demand remains materially intact. However, when adjusted for population growth, sales per 100,000 residents are nearly twenty percent below average, and sales per 1,000 Realtors are down twenty two point eight percent from norms despite a slight year over year gain. Market velocity is therefore supporting baseline activity but not enough to stimulate pricing improvement.
Pricing continues to reflect normalization rather than recovery. The average sold price for November is $579,418, down from the peak of $681,939 reached in May 2022. That fifteen percent decline from peak equates to a one hundred three thousand dollar adjustment. The median sold price of $435,000 has fallen twenty point nine percent from its peak and remains five point four three percent lower than levels from thirty six months ago. For analysts, that thirty six month trailing comparison helps confirm that current pricing is still sub trend even after substantial correction, which aligns with the four point eight three eight percent long term annual appreciation model. If today’s median represents the bottom of cycle pricing, it would take approximately sixty three months to reach parity with the previous peak using historical growth rates, placing recovery calculations around January 2031.
High end pricing segments show certain resilience, with the top twenty five percent of homes gaining five point eight eight percent year over year in median price and two point one five percent in price per square foot. Lower quartile properties remain challenged, posting a point one two percent decline in median price and a two point two three percent drop in price per square foot. This divergence underscores selective buyer behavior, where higher quality assets outperform at the same time that less differentiated inventory stalls. That fragmentation adds complexity within the austin housing market evaluation due to increased variance between list to sale conversion ranges.
Market efficiency metrics reinforce these same directional themes. The Market Flow Score now reads 4.30 versus a historical mean of 6.58. Lower scores indicate slower turnover, higher inventory friction, and minimal forward push. While not in a freeze state, the current readings reflect a supply heavy landscape where momentum is concentrated in the top condition and top area properties. Price sensitivity remains high across most segments, and hesitation is strongest in areas where total days on market exceed median ranges.
As 2025 nears completion, the overall trajectory remains consistent with an extended correction cycle gradually aligning with affordability thresholds. Inventory remains elevated compared to last year, yet retreating from midyear highs is constructive. Buyer activity is below trend but not deteriorating further. Prices appear stabilized within a trough range rather than sliding deeper. In plain terms, the market continues to work through its imbalance. From an operational standpoint, agents must guide listings with front end strategy, realistic pricing, and value justification. For buyers, the window remains favorable for leverage but with tightening opportunity once activity rebounds from seasonal lows. For investors focused on an austin housing forecast beyond short term movement, today’s data supports the thesis of extended stabilization before any meaningful appreciation can gain traction.
As always, the consistency of supply growth relative to demand stability is a critical forward indicator. Listing behavior demonstrates that sellers are still testing above market levels and then correcting down, rather than pricing at equilibrium from day one. For the austin real estate sector to improve in early 2026, absorption will need to improve beyond the 15 percent threshold range while inventory tightens below the current five and a half month horizon. Seasonality is expected to lean mildly positive between January and April, but long term appreciation pressure will remain muted until interest rate support, labor expansion, and absorption patterns converge.
Despite the pressure, this correction is functioning as a healthy rebase rather than a systemic contraction. The market has moved from speculative acceleration to data aligned normalization. Visual indicators in today’s Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing clearly show that the steepest phase of price retraction is behind us even though momentum remains soft. From a strategy standpoint, this environment rewards accurate pricing and disciplined negotiation. Expect discussions surrounding value, cost of upgrades, and extended marketing periods to remain central heading into Q1.
